Shad Olson: Why Trump Beats Hillary and Wins ‘Yuuuge’ in 2016
For all of you predicting a Hillary victory in November 2016, please stop embarrassing yourselves. Consider this my recorded prediction of a Trump demolition of Hillary Clinton. A few points: Toss out the polls. Polling Trump hasn’t worked and won’t work accurately until existing models, formulas and algorithms, normally applied to conventional two-party candidates, are adjusted to accommodate Trump’s unique electoral footprint. Also, as my esteemed friend and former Congressional candidate Bruce Whalen points out, typical polling questions are biased to the point of asking, “If you were voting in the election today, would Donald Trump still be worse than cancer, which Hillary Clinton can and will cure as our first woman President? Yes, Yes or Yes?”
Secondly, toss out the maps. Simply slapping a 2008 or 2012 template over a state map and coloring by electoral college number won’t come close. Not a single poll thus far has adequately quantified Trump’s appeal to both blue collar Democrats and Independents. Also, most national polls are constructed assuming a Democratic approximation of Barack Obama’s, ‘First African American President,’ voter turnout and enthusiasm. Hillary couldn’t defeat Barack Obama and she won’t duplicate or outgain him at the ballot box either. Simple math.
Also, realize that for Democrats to win the Presidency in any election cycle they need as much as 90-92% of the African American vote. Every. Single. Time. With that in mind, realize that even conservative estimates show Trump could win 15-20% of that voting segment. Some have shown as high as 30% favorability among African Americans. IF half of those break for Trump….game over. Landslide.
Then there’s the issue of campaign tone and a purely instinctive tell. In this instance, I believe Donald Trump’s outsider status and reality show television resume play massively to his advantage. Why? Lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of fake Hillary Clinton condescending laughter. That plastic calculated head tilt and toothy donkey-bray guffaw that can make most men wish for instant death regardless of method and reminds many women of the mother in law they’ve never been able to please. Hillary will be lured into a game of, ‘Pat the Donald on the Head and chuckle,’ laughing her way through interviews and attempting to make light of the fact that she’s losing to a man who wears a live squirrel on his head. And if there’s anything that America hates more than serious, pensive, angry, commandeering Hillary Clinton, it’s Hillary Clinton laughing so hard you can see her uvula jiggle. (Not a dirty reference. Look it up.)
Obviously, voter turnout tells the tale in every election, but present evidence suggests that Trump inspires people who have never or seldom voted to get to the polls. And with traditionally blue states like Pennsylvania, West Virginny, New York and possibly even California in play because of Trump’s crossover appeal to disparate voting blocs, cut-and-paste identity political assumptions don’t work here. Barring unforeseen disaster or assassination, Trump wins and likely wins very big. You might even say, “Yyyuuuge.”