Wuhan Virus Hits 83% Infection Rate for Those Exposed, 15% Fatality Rate, 53,000 Infected
The Lancet: Study shows the Wuhan coronavirus fatality rate has jumped to 15%, and the infection rate among those exposed is 83%.
The first publicly published medical study of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak paints a shocking picture of a disease more deadly, more infectious and more difficult to track and contain than initially believed.
A study published in The Lancet, Britain’s medical journal of record, finds the novel coronavirus recording eye popping statistics in the three most important measures of how an illness can be expected to spread: Infection rate, latency period of symptoms while contagious and fatality rate. In all three categories, doctors conclude that coronavirus is already among the most difficult outbreaks of the modern era and is comparable in potential outcomes to the Spanish flu pandemic that killed 55-million from 1918 to 1923.
Particularly alarming doctors say, an 8-14 day asymptomatic contagion window where a coronavirus patient presents no visible or noticeable symptoms, but is still actively carrying and spreading the virus, infecting up to 83% of all of the people they contact during that time. The longer the asymptomatic infectious window, the more difficult it is for doctors and emergency responders to track carriers of the disease and calculate their potential concentric circles of contact in the interest of locating and quarantining exposed populations and stopping the spread. Faster presenting viruses like Ebola are much easier to track.
A medical source quoted in the South China Morning Post says China’s notoriously opaque regime is lagging badly in achieving up to date figures of the viral spread, which is now estimated to have infected 53,000 Chinese alone, a number ten times larger than the 5,300 confirmed infections and 106 deaths claimed by Beijing.
“If it holds, an 83% infection rate will make this pandemic impossible to contain.”—The Lancet
Translated coverage from TaiwanDaily.net says this:
Hong Kong and Chinese researchers published the latest research on “New Coronavirus 2019” (referred to as “Wuhan pneumonia”) in the medical journal “Lancet” on the 24th. Chinese experts pointed directly to the disease. The [fatality] rate is fifteen percent. Hong Kong experts confirmed for the first time that Wuhan pneumonia can be transmitted from person to person, and patients may not have surface symptoms. Taking a Shenzhen seven-person home with six people as an example, the analysis shows that the attack rate is as high as 83% and the incubation period is three to six days It is expected that a large number of cases will break out in China within a week, and the next two weeks will be a crucial period to prevent any place from becoming “another Wuhan”.
The same article also reveals the recorded rate of symptoms among those who are infected:
Overall, 98% of the symptoms were fever, 76% coughing, 44% muscle pain or feeling tired.
Doctors say these numbers are virtually unheard of in the world of microbiology and communicable disease. It means that 15 out of every 100 infected people will die. It also means that 83 out of 100 exposed people will become infected and able to transmit the disease to others.
So for every 100 people who are exposed, around 12 will die (15% of 83).
Prevalence of Novel Coronavirus symptoms as published by The Lancet:
Sputum production: 28%
Also note it took eight days to develop dyspnoea, or difficulty breathing.
Also notice that 12% suffered “acute cardiac injury” which means permanent damage to the heart.